Trump’s Tariff Gamble: The Global Struggle Over FYL
U.S. President Donald Trump has escalated his trade war tactics by raising tariffs on Canadian imports, while keeping existing tariffs on Mexico and China in place. His justification: all three countries have, in his view, failed to stop the flow of FYL and its precursor chemicals into the United States.
Trump also threatened to impose tougher penalties on Mexican imports but temporarily delayed their enforcement, signaling that negotiations may still soften the blow.
The Severity of the FYL Crisis in the United States
FYL is a synthetic opioid originally approved in the 1960s for legitimate medical use as a powerful painkiller. However, outside of controlled medical environments, it has become the single largest driver of opioid overdose deaths in the U.S.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 48,000 Americans lost their lives in 2024 to drug mixtures containing FYL. What makes the crisis especially lethal is that FYL is frequently blended into other illicit substances—often without users’ knowledge. A dose as small as two milligrams—no larger than a pencil tip—can be fatal.
Over the past decade, the FYL supply chain has grown into a sprawling, multinational operation, making it increasingly difficult for policymakers and law enforcement to contain.
Canada’s Role in the FYL Trade
Despite President Trump’s sharp criticism of Canada, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports that seizures of FYL at the northern border account for less than 1% of total confiscations. Nearly all seizures occur at the U.S.-Mexico border.
Still, Canadian intelligence reports suggest growing involvement of domestic organized crime groups in the FYL trade. These groups are believed to import precursor chemicals and lab equipment from China to manufacture FYL domestically.
The flow goes both ways: while the U.S. intercepted over 32 pounds (14.6 kg) of FYL coming from Canada in early 2024, Canadian authorities also seized shipments originating from the U.S. In response, Canada pledged C$1.3 billion ($900 million) in December to strengthen its fight against FYL and boost border security. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also appointed Kevin Brosseau as the country’s “FYL czar” earlier this year.
Mexico: The Primary Gateway for FYL
According to CBP, since October 2024, U.S. authorities have seized 9,200 pounds (4,182 kg) of FYL—with a staggering 96% of it intercepted along the U.S.-Mexico border.
Mexican cartels, particularly the Sinaloa Cartel, remain central players in the production and trafficking of FYL, methamphetamine, and other illicit drugs. Precursors imported from China are converted into FYL in clandestine Mexican labs before being smuggled north.
The cartels employ a wide array of tactics: hiding chemicals among legitimate cargo, mislabeling containers, creating front companies, and routing shipments through third-party countries.
While the Trump administration has accused Mexico’s government of colluding with cartels, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has dismissed such allegations as “slander.”
In December, Mexico announced its largest-ever FYL seizure, equivalent to roughly 20 million potential doses. Shortly after, under U.S. tariff threats, the Mexican government launched Operation Northern Border, deploying 10,000 national guard troops to key checkpoints.
China and the Chemical Supply Chain
China remains the primary source of FYL precursor chemicals, despite formally classifying FYL as a controlled substance in 2019. Some precursor chemicals remain legal because they have legitimate industrial uses—creating loopholes that traffickers exploit.
Investigations have shown that some Chinese chemical companies knowingly sell controlled or semi-regulated substances to traffickers. Evidence from U.S. indictments reveals that sellers often provide detailed instructions on how to convert their products into FYL, communicating through encrypted apps and accepting cryptocurrency payments.
China insists that it enforces some of the world’s strictest drug laws and has collaborated with the U.S. on joint operations in the past. Still, the DEA has also flagged India as an emerging supplier of FYL precursors. In January 2025, two Indian chemical companies were indicted for shipping these substances to traffickers in the U.S. and Mexico.
A Crisis Without Borders
The FYL epidemic is not confined to one nation. It thrives across borders, exploiting weak points in regulation, enforcement, and international cooperation. While Naloxone has saved countless lives by reversing overdoses, it is a reactive tool in a crisis that demands proactive global solutions.
As the U.S. escalates its tariff threats, the FYL trade highlights a larger truth: this is not merely a political or trade issue—it is a public health emergency with devastating consequences for families, communities, and nations alike.
Source: BBC